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Forex Market Analysis: Which Type Is Better?

There are two types of forex market analysis: fundamental analysis, which considers economic, social and political forces and how they influence the currency markets, and technical analysis which uses charts to identify trends and patterns in the movement of prices.

So which one is better? If you check out forums and websites you will find many traders strongly supporting one or the other. Those who like to rely on charts will tell you that the only way to make money with forex trading is to identify trends and jump onto them as early as possible.

At the same time the advocates of fundamental analysis will argue that it is the economic factors that drive the changes in currency prices and this is undoubtedly true, at least most of the time. From that position they will reason that any patterns you might find on a chart are nothing more than coincidental.

But logically this does not necessarily follow. Even though economic changes have a huge impact on the currency markets, it may still be possible to identify patterns in the way that the markets react after an announcement or in times when there are no major announcements.

If on the other hand you rely solely on your charts, you are likely to be caught out when a major financial event such as an interest rate change is suddenly announced. You were not paying attention to the financial news and left a trade open at the wrong moment. That could result in disaster.

So the bottom line is that there are economic events behind the larger scale rises and falls in the market, but there are also common patterns that can be identified in the short term. Finding these patterns and trends, while keeping one eye on the economic and political news, is the best way to predict future price movements. And predicting future price movements, of course, is the way to make money with forex trading.

Foreign exchange market movements are a little like elastic that can stretch in one way or another and then fall back, although not always to its starting position. The fundamentals are the forces that cause it to stretch. Technical analysis predicts how far it will go in each direction before reversing.

So when you want to profit from forex trading it is better not to allow your attention to become fixed on either one. You need to learn to balance the use of both types of forex market analysis to make consistent profits.

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Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 Strategy No Comments