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Fundamental Analysis

Forex Market Analysis: Which Type Is Better?

There are two types of forex market analysis: fundamental analysis, which considers economic, social and political forces and how they influence the currency markets, and technical analysis which uses charts to identify trends and patterns in the movement of prices.

So which one is better? If you check out forums and websites you will find many traders strongly supporting one or the other. Those who like to rely on charts will tell you that the only way to make money with forex trading is to identify trends and jump onto them as early as possible.

At the same time the advocates of fundamental analysis will argue that it is the economic factors that drive the changes in currency prices and this is undoubtedly true, at least most of the time. From that position they will reason that any patterns you might find on a chart are nothing more than coincidental.

But logically this does not necessarily follow. Even though economic changes have a huge impact on the currency markets, it may still be possible to identify patterns in the way that the markets react after an announcement or in times when there are no major announcements.

If on the other hand you rely solely on your charts, you are likely to be caught out when a major financial event such as an interest rate change is suddenly announced. You were not paying attention to the financial news and left a trade open at the wrong moment. That could result in disaster.

So the bottom line is that there are economic events behind the larger scale rises and falls in the market, but there are also common patterns that can be identified in the short term. Finding these patterns and trends, while keeping one eye on the economic and political news, is the best way to predict future price movements. And predicting future price movements, of course, is the way to make money with forex trading.

Foreign exchange market movements are a little like elastic that can stretch in one way or another and then fall back, although not always to its starting position. The fundamentals are the forces that cause it to stretch. Technical analysis predicts how far it will go in each direction before reversing.

So when you want to profit from forex trading it is better not to allow your attention to become fixed on either one. You need to learn to balance the use of both types of forex market analysis to make consistent profits.

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Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 Strategy No Comments

Fx Technical Analysis: Trading With Charts And Trends

Forex technical analysis is one of two ways to analyze the foreign exchange markets. It works by studying the movement of prices, while the other method, fundamental analysis, looks at external economic factors such as the strength of the national economy, political events and so forth.

Studying price movement with forex technical analysis involves charts. The theory of it is that if you look at the historical records of how prices have moved in the past, you can identify tendencies and trends which will mean that you can predict how the prices will move in the future. Then as soon as you spot an emerging pattern that fits your system, you have a trading opportunity.

There are three types of forex charts:

1. Line charts

Line charts simply plot each closing price and join them with a line. The rise and fall of the line shows the general movement of a currency pair. However, it does not show movements within the trading period, only the close.

2. Bar charts

A bar chart will show a series of vertical lines or bars. The top of the line represents the highest price during that time period. The bottom of the line represents the low. A short horizontal bar on the left side indicates the opening price and a short horizontal bar on the right side indicates the closing price.

Since they show the open, high, low and close, bar charts are also sometimes called OHLC charts.

3. Candlestick charts

Forex candlestick charts show all of the same information as a bar chart, but presented in a different way which most people find easier to read at a glance.

You have the same vertical line with the high at the top and the low at the bottom, but there is also a wide block in the middle showing the gap between the opening and closing price. The blocks will be filled white (for a rising price) and black (for a falling price) or more often these days they are colored. Colors can vary but a common combination is green or blue for rising and red for falling.

Most people prefer candlestick charts over bar charts because they are easier to interpret. It is much easier to see turning points in the market using candlestick charts. You can immediately see where the market reversed from an upward to a downward trend and vice versa.

When you see a trend forming, you can make money by trading in the same direction as the emerging trend. ‘The trend is your friend’, as currency traders say. For this reason, identifying the trend is the most important thing to learn in forex technical analysis and using candlestick charts is probably the easiest way to do this.

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Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009 Strategy, Trading with Charts No Comments

A Quick And Easy Foreign Exchange Tutorial

Your first foreign exchange tutorial will cover the basics of what you need to do to get started with forex trading. The aim, of course, is to have you making money by predicting the rise and fall of one currency against another and opening and closing your trades at the right moment.

It takes time to learn to be a successful forex trader but you can cut corners if you have a good introductory program that covers everything you need to know. This includes:

- understanding the principles of currency trading including managing your account, trading margins, and allowing for the cost of the spread

- technical analysis: discovering how to recognize trends in the markets, the different types of charts and how to interpret them so that you can profit from market movements

- fundamental analysis: understanding what to do in the face of major national or international economic events that are likely to impact on currency values.

- finding out how to minimize your risk and protect your trades with stops

- developing the power to apply your system without allowing losses or emotions such as fear to throw you off balance and affect your chances of earning long term profits

A good place to pick up hints and tips can be a forex trading online forum. There are many of these on the internet and members will comment about all kinds of issues relating to the market and their own trading. This can be a great place to go if you have questions.

However, forums have some drawbacks. One is that the advice you get may be very contradictory. There is more than one way to trade forex profitably and it can be confusing to be receiving advice from several different people, each with their own approach. It is usually better to stick to your own system.

The other problem with taking advice on forums is that you do not usually know anything about the people who are posting. Somebody could sound very knowledgeable and then it turns out they have only ever used a demo account and never made a real trade in their lives. Some people spend more time hanging out in forums than trading. Just because somebody is very active in a forum does not mean he or she is an expert.

So do not rely on forums, free guides or untested theories for your trading system. When you are starting out in forex trading you need a solid grounding in the basics and a system that is easy to follow and actually works. As with most things in life you usually have to pay for the best. So look for a foreign exchange tutorial that is part of a profitable forex system.

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Tuesday, May 26th, 2009 Introduction No Comments