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How To Make Money From Forex Trends

Identifying and profiting from forex trends and patterns is the way that most forex traders make money. Your main aim when you are trading the foreign exchange market will be to identify a trend as it is forming and jump in so that you can profit from it.

Trends are very simple to see in hindsight when we look at a chart. A candlestick chart shows them most clearly but you can see them on any type of chart.

If you draw a line above the low points of the candlestick shadows while prices are generally rising you will see the slope of the uptrend. Similarly if you draw a line above the high points of the shadows while prices are generally falling, you will see the slope of the downtrend.

There are also sideways trends when the prices are fluctuating up and down between two points but not breaking beyond them. In this case the lines drawn above and below the shadows will be just about horizontal.

Where you have a horizontal line, you could expect a breakout going in one direction or the other eventually. Some traders will set up orders to enter the market when the price goes to a certain point either above or below the line.

Other traders will use sideways forex trends to indicate a change in the main movement of the prices. For example if the sideways pattern follows a pretty much regular upward movement, it may indicate resistance to the price moving any further. You could surmise that the upper line is a resistance line and a downturn will follow to bring the prices back within the band that is supported by the market.

Before using any of these methods to create a system, however, you should do extensive testing. Backtests will help you decide whether the system is worth investigating further. Then always run real time tests using a demo account before you back your system with real money. Remember that forex is very risky and even the best of systems have their failures or what may be called losing runs.

If trend lines are drawn correctly they can be just as accurate a way of predicting breakouts or major changes in the direction of price movements as any other method. However you have to be careful to be objective, especially when dealing with the real time market.

When we are waiting for certain conditions to be fulfilled so that we can place an order, it is tempting to jump the gun and assume that a pattern is forming when really it is too early to be sure. So watch out. When drawing lines for forex trends it is deceptively easy to draw what you want to have happen, instead of what is happening.

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Friday, June 19th, 2009 Strategy No Comments

Using The Fx Trailing Stop With MT4

The forex trailing stop is a stop that you can set in an expert advisor on the Metatrader 4 platform. It is pretty much what you might guess from the name: a stop loss that moves according to the current prices on the forex market. And a stop loss, of course, is a marker you set that will cause your MT4 expert advisor autopilot software (EA) to exit the trade when it goes against you to prevent you having any risk of a large loss.

But there are several things to be taken into account when you consider how to use the trailing stop. It is a little like a ratchet in that it can move up but not down. When you move into profit, it follows behind, moving up by the same number of pips that the market moved. But if the market falls, it stays where it is. So the market can rise and rise and you go on making more profit, but when it falls just a little way, the stop loss comes into effect and exits your trade with whatever profit or loss you made up until that point.

To give an example, you open a trade to go long. Of course at the moment of opening you are at point zero: 0 pips profit or loss. Let’s say you set your trailing stop at minus 30 pips. If you are unlucky and the forex market just falls and falls, the stop loss will kick in and close the trade for you at 30 pips down. But if the market rises, the stop loss will rise with it.

So when the market is 20 pips in your favor, your stop will have moved to 30 pips below that. If the market then falls and the price hits the stop, the EA would get you out with a loss of just 10 pips.

If the market rises to 40, the stop moves up to 10 above zero. You then have a guaranteed profit of 10 pips. In fact as soon as the market rises by the same number of pips as your trailing stop (in this case 30) you cannot lose.

Sure you could monitor the markets and operate this strategy yourself, but there is a risk of you failing to make your exit at the right moment and taking a greater loss than you planned, or having to exit a trade while the market is still rising because you have to sleep or whatever. So as long as you can leave MT4 running, an EA on autopilot relieves a lot of the pressure that would otherwise be on you in this situation.

The volatility of the market is the main factor in deciding where to set the trailing stop. You do not want to take a heavy loss but at the same time you do not want to have the stop triggered by random fluctuations in the market. A forex trailing stop that is too close to the starting price will be triggered so often that you could end up making constant small losses.

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Monday, May 18th, 2009 fx trading software No Comments